With less than a week until the midterm elections, analysts at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted their ratings in favor of Republican candidates in 10 congressional districts.
Cook Political indicated that many of the congressional districts that President Joe Biden easily won during the past presidential election are in danger of being lost due to underperformance by Democratic governors. Republicans, on the other hand, are gaining as they focus on increasing crime and soaring inflation. According to the research, the safest Democrats seem to be in the states with no contested statewide campaigns.
Cook Political also stated that several available seats allowed Republicans to “stay closer to spending parity,” adding that all of the open seats are in states in which Republican candidates for governor are surging, benefiting down-ballot campaigns.
According to the data, some of the seat swaps — Harder, Porter, Casten, Underwood, and Kim — are the result of the redistricting process, which gave them a district with over 45 percent additional voters, whereas two more districts — Brownley and Morelle — obtained much weaker districts.
According to the most current round of district modifications, 212 seats are classified as “Lean Republican,” 188 as “Lean Democrat,” and 35 as “Toss-up.”
If the House Republicans win all of the “Lean,” “Probable,” and “Solid” Republican races, they will only have to win six of the “Toss-up” Republican races to reclaim the majority in the House. In comparison, the Democrats need to win 29 of the 35 “Toss-up” contests to maintain their majority.
According to Cook Political, Republicans will gain from 12 and 25 seats.