According to a CBS News/YouGov survey, former President Donald Trump continues to lead President Joe Biden nationally despite his conviction in the business records trial in blue Manhattan.
According to the survey, which was done between Wednesday and Friday, precisely half of likely voters—including leaners—support Trump for president. At 49%, he leads Biden by 1 point, but only 1% of respondents say they would support a third-party candidate.
In the race for independent votes, Biden leads Trump by 50% to 48%. Ninety-four percent of the members of each party’s base support each candidate, while five percent come from the opposition party.
According to CBS News, Biden is ahead by one point among likely voters in battleground states, 50 percent to 49 percent.
Supporters of Trump exhibit greater fervor than those of Biden. Sixty-nine percent of Biden supporters say they have “determined” he is their candidate and have extremely strong support for him. By contrast, 78% of Trump supporters are “determined” to vote for the 45th president and have extremely strong support for him.
Two percent of Biden’s followers anticipate changing their minds at some point, while just under a quarter say their support is solid and they “definitely won’t” switch. Four percent of his supporters think they “may yet alter” their minds.
Outstanding Trump supporters who have not “decided” whether or not to vote for him comprise 18% who describe their support as “strong” and unlikely to change, and 4% who have “fairly strong” backing but “may still” switch candidates.
The respondents’ underlying reasons for voting for either of the two candidates further solidify the disparities in fervor between them. Only 27% of Biden’s fans say they would vote for him just because they “like” him, whereas 54% of his supporters say they would vote against Trump.
On the other hand, 34% of Trump supporters say they would vote against Biden, while 52% of supporters say they would vote for him because they “like” him.
Furthermore, 51% of respondents see the election as a comparison of the candidates; 22% consider it to be a vote against Biden; and 26% believe it to be a vote against Trump.
The poll included a sample of 1,615 registered voters and 1,359 probable voters. There was no mention of the margin of error for likely voters, but it was ± 3.8 percentage points for registered voters.
Trump’s one-point advantage over other candidates is in line with nationwide surveys conducted by Morning Consult and Emerson College following his conviction. In a June 4–5 Emerson College Polling study, registered voters gave Trump 46% support and Biden 45%. According to a Morning Consult survey of registered voters conducted May 31–June 2, Trump received 44% of the vote and Biden 43%.
