One of the most bizarre aspects of the recent election was not that polling was inaccurate, resulting in a surprise Republican triumph. Instead, the polling was mostly accurate, leading to a surprising Republican disappointment.
Contrary to popular belief, a red wave did emerge during the recent midterm elections. It just happened that it was the most inefficient, poorly spaced-out red wave in modern times, with Republicans gaining the nationwide popular vote by a few percentage points, just as projected by the generic ballot polling average.
The failure to meet expectations (and, to be fair, the election was a catastrophe for Republicans overall) came from elsewhere. Specifically, the incredibly convoluted dynamics of specific districts, which even the GOP’s highest-paid analysts were unable to unravel. That’s a roundabout way of stating that rejecting polling altogether is probably not the greatest choice, as a new poll has been released to counter the negative Nancy narrative around the upcoming Republican House of Representatives.
Similarly, Ben Shapiro and other right commentators questioned the GOP caucus’ decision to announce a series of probes, many of which they had promised for years. So here’s the counter-argument.
NEW POLL: Should the House…
Investigate the Hunter Biden Laptop?
Yes — 65%
No — 35%
Investigate the origins of Covid Virus?
Yes — 71%
No — 29%
End the Jan 6th Committee?
Yes — 62%
No — 38%
Harvard/Harris, 11/16-17, 2,212 RV https://t.co/898CBZd9Jx pic.twitter.com/RXuPz1tMpz
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 20, 2022
This works in both directions. Throughout the first two years of Trump’s presidency, Democrats launched a barrage of investigations into the then-current president. What happened in the following election? Democrats won. This may go on until the 2022 election, when Democrats outperformed predictions despite having spent all of their time pushing the Jan. 6th committee.
In short, there isn’t any reason to expect that the Republican House respecting its base enough to follow through on its commitment to investigate Hunter Biden will cost them the 2024 election. On the contrary, especially if the probe uncovers evidence of the Biden family’s corruption. The above-mentioned Harvard/Harris poll backs up that claim, with vast majorities desiring true accountability in Washington.
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