Gavin Newsom desperately wants to look like a president-in-waiting.
The book tour.
The international appearances.
The carefully curated cable news hits.
The social media jabs at President Trump.
It all screams 2028.
There’s just one problem.
Voters don’t seem to care anymore.
CNN’s senior data analyst Harry Enten delivered a brutal reality check this week, pointing out that Newsom’s presidential buzz is not rising — it’s collapsing.
And this isn’t conservative spin. It’s CNN.
“It seems to me that Gavin Newsom is flailing a little bit, at least compared to where he was prior, because just take a look here. Chance Newsom is the 2028 Democrat nominee. Three months ago, according to the cash prediction market. Look at that. It was a 37 percent chance. Now it’s just at 28 percent, down he goes. He’s definitely flailing a little bit,” Enten said.
Let that sink in.
In November, Newsom had a 37% chance of securing the Democratic nomination according to Kalshi’s prediction market odds. By February? That number had dropped to 28%.
That’s not momentum.
That’s erosion.
And it gets worse.
“And I will note, John [Berman], I will note that it also seems to me people are a little less interested in Gavin Newsom than they used to be,” Enten continued. “Look at this. Google searches for Gavin Newsom down 63 percent from the August peak. You remember back then it was when he started that social media right going after President Trump. It was a lot of interest from Democratic voters. But maybe that interest is waning off just a little bit.”
Down 63%.
For a man clearly trying to build national name recognition, that’s political oxygen draining out of the room.
This is not how a frontrunner behaves. This is how a candidate peaks too early and fades.
Even in early Democratic primary chatter, Newsom isn’t dominating. Enten pointed out he narrowly led potential contenders at 19%, with former Vice President Kamala Harris close behind at 18%. Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trailed at 12%.
Meanwhile, Harris led 2028 Democratic primary polling by 7.6 points as of Tuesday, according to RealClear Polling.
In other words: Newsom isn’t even clearly in first place — and this is before the race has officially begun.
The Democratic Party hasn’t lacked a clear frontrunner this far out since 1992. That’s not a sign of strength. That’s a sign of chaos.
Newsom’s recent missteps aren’t helping.
He took heat this week after telling Democratic Atlanta Mayor Andrew Dickens that he related to him because he struggled to read and scored poorly on his SATs — comments that triggered backlash from conservatives. When pressed by Fox News’ Sean Hannity, Newsom claimed he was being falsely accused of racism and explained he was referencing his dyslexia.
Not exactly the smooth presidential rollout he likely envisioned.
Of course, establishment Democrats are still trying to inflate the balloon. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told Politico on Feb. 13 that Newsom “would make a great president” and has publicly promoted him.
But Pelosi’s praise doesn’t change polling numbers. It doesn’t reverse a 63% collapse in search interest. And it certainly doesn’t erase the perception that Newsom’s national rollout has stalled.
For someone who clearly sees himself in the Oval Office in 2029, the trajectory is going the wrong direction.
Instead of building momentum, Gavin Newsom looks like a candidate whose spotlight moment already passed — and voters are scrolling on.
If this trend continues, 2028 may not be his coronation.
It may be his reality check.
